The Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry – North Bay District is advising area residents that a Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook is in effect for North Bay District.

Residents in these watersheds should keep a close watch on conditions, regularly check for updated messages and stay away from fast-moving rivers and streams.

MNR is closely monitoring the weather and developing watershed conditions.

Further updates will be issued as appropriate.

TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Description of Weather System

A strong low pressure system will cross lower Lake Superior, and move southwest to northeast across northeastern Ontario through the day, bringing a mix of snow, freezing rain, heavy rain and strong winds across Ontario.

Areas of southwestern Ontario including the Bruce Peninsula, and through into Muskoka, Britt and North Bay, are all expected to see additional precipitation in the amounts 10 – 25 mm, with the possibility of embedded convective cells that could deliver an additional 5 -10 mm.

As the low pressure system exits out of Ontario and into northern Quebec, 2 cold fronts will sweep across northeastern Ontario, quickly returning the northeastern Ontario to seasonal or below seasonal temperatures tomorrow.

Description of Current Conditions

Northern portions of southern Ontario and into much of the northeast experienced a particularly wet fall and areas are still experiencing above normal water levels and flows.

Temperatures will continue to be above freezing during the day today for most of northeastern Ontario, causing continued snowmelt and enhanced run-off from the expected precipitation. Melting of significant portions of the local snow pack has already occurred over most of southern and south-central Ontario.

Already high water levels combined with rainfall/snowmelt will likely result in flooding. Areas that haven’t benefited from lake effect snow, can expect to see less snow pack buffering and a rapid response to the forecast rainfall.

A close watch on local forecasts and conditions is recommended.

Expiry Date:

This message will expire on Thursday, November 27 2014, 12:00 AM .

Terminology: Notification Levels

WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT – FLOOD OUTLOOK: gives early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high winds or other conditions

WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT – WATER SAFETY: indicates that high flows, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for such users as boaters, anglers and swimmers but flooding is not expected.

FLOOD WATCH: potential for flooding exists within specific watercourses and municipalities

FLOOD WARNING: flooding is imminent or occurring within specific watercourses and municipalities.

Contact Information

For more information please contact:

Graham Mewett, Integrated Resource Management Specialist, 705-475-5529

A close watch on local conditions and weather forecasts from Environment Canada is recommended.

Environment Canada bulletins can be found at http://weather.gc.ca/

The Surface Water Monitoring Centre public webpage can be found here: www.ontario.ca/flooding