DISTRICT (Staff/Special) — The Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (MNRF) – Kirkland Lake District – is advising area residents that a Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook is in effect in the district until Sunday, April 28.
The ministry is closely monitoring the weather and developing watershed conditions. Further updates will be issued as appropriate.
A weather system is moving into Northeastern Ontario bringing 15 to 30 mm of rain across a swath from the eastern shores of Lake Superior to the Quebec border, the MNRF states in a news release.
The system is forecast to continue to drop another 15 to 25 mm of rain through parts of Central and Northeastern Ontario with higher amounts currently forecast north of Lake Nipissing.
Moderate thunderstorms may be associated with this event and have the potential to add 10 to 25 mm of rain in isolated areas, according to the MNRF. Event totals through to Tuesday evening, April 23, have the potential to reach 50 mm of rain with 50 to 75 mm in isolated areas.
The system is forecast to move out by Wednesday, April 24, with minimal precipitation currently in the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday, April 25 across the province.
Daytime high temperatures are forecast in the 0 to 15 degrees Celsius range across most of the North over the next five days. Night-time low temperatures are largely forecast to stay at or below 0 degrees Celsius in areas north of Lake Superior, the MNRF adds.
CONTINUING SNOWPACK
There is a continuing snowpack in Central and Northeastern Ontario ranging from 100 to 200 mm of snow water equivalent in Central Ontario and 100 to 250 mm in Northeastern Ontario, the MNRF states. “These values will have been reduced by recent rain and melt but it is expected that substantial snowpack remains in parts of Central Ontario and across Northeastern Ontario.”
The MNRF states that water levels and stream flows across the district are elevated from ongoing spring snow melt and past precipitation events but are still within seasonal norms.
“The impact of recent warm temperatures and rainfall have compacted the significant snow pack reducing its ability to absorb rainfall. The forecast warm temperatures and precipitation are likely to further degrade the snowpack and river ice and continue to produce runoff and increase levels and flows.
“Risks may include degradation of river ice and ice jam related flooding from increasing temperatures and flows, fast-moving cold water with rapidly changing conditions, and flooding of low-lying areas with a history of flooding.
A close watch on local forecasts and conditions is recommended.
A Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook gives early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rains, snow melt, high winds or other conditions.